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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Wycliffe A v Cheltenham College A (Thu 01 Dec 2022)Match played between Harry Bloomfield (home) and Brad Clare (away).Match won by Brad Clare. Result: 11-8,5-11,4-11,11-8,6-11. Starting level for Harry Bloomfield: 5,081, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Brad Clare: 7,503, level confidence: 68%. Brad Clare to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Harry Bloomfield. Brad Clare won 60% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Brad Clare played 16% better than Harry Bloomfield in this match. As Brad Clare has played below his allowed range at 6,303, his level reduction is 7.3% before damping. On the assumption that Brad Clare would normally have been playing at level 7,165 (based on typical behaviour), Harry Bloomfield played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 8.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Brad Clare changes to -6% and Harry Bloomfield changes to +7.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Brad Clare becomes -2.4% and for Harry Bloomfield becomes +3.1%. Given Brad Clare's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.6% has been applied to his level change. Given Harry Bloomfield's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2022/23' so the adjustment for Brad Clare is -1.6% and for Harry Bloomfield is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Brad Clare: 82%, Harry Bloomfield: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Brad Clare: 73%, Harry Bloomfield: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Harry Bloomfield: 5,199, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Brad Clare: 7,369, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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