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Login: | Explaining level changesSummer Prem: East Glos Summer A v Riverside Summer A (Wed 06 Jul 2022)Match played between Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield (home) and Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin (away).Match won by Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield. Result: 15-6,15-5,15-11. Starting level for Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield: 1,654, level confidence: 16%. Starting level for Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin: 1,614, level confidence: 45%. Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin. Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield played 105% better than Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield actually played at a level of 2,337 and Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin at a level of 1,142. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield changes to +41% and Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin changes to -12%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield becomes +16.4% and for Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin becomes -6%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2021/22' so the adjustment for Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield is +10.7% and for Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin is -3.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield: 40%, Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield: 29%, Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin: 47%. Final level for Ian Bloomfield/Harry Bloomfield: 1,819, level confidence: 29%. Final level for Neal Scrivener/Nigel Giffin: 1,554, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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