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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: Stroud C v Cheltenham Ladies College A (Thu 27 Feb 2020)Match played between Paul Phillips (home) and Mike Edwards (away).Match won by Mike Edwards. Result: 6-15,9-15,1-15. Starting level for Paul Phillips: 770, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Mike Edwards: 1,198, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Mike Edwards to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Paul Phillips. Mike Edwards won all of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Edwards played 181% better than Paul Phillips in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Edwards actually played at a level of 1,611 and Paul Phillips at a level of 573. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Edwards changes to +27% and Paul Phillips changes to -26%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Edwards becomes +13.2% and for Paul Phillips becomes -14%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/20' so the adjustment for Mike Edwards is +9.9% and for Paul Phillips is -10.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Phillips is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Edwards: 85%, Paul Phillips: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Edwards: 63%, Paul Phillips: 63%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Phillips: 732, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Mike Edwards: 1,314, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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