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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Old Pats B v Stroud A (Tue 28 Jan 2020)Match played between Angus Hall (home) and Rich Banyard (away).Match won by Rich Banyard. Result: 6-11,3-11,2-11. Starting level for Angus Hall: 1,677, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Rich Banyard: 2,355, level confidence: 65%. Rich Banyard to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Angus Hall. Rich Banyard won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rich Banyard played 200% better than Angus Hall in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rich Banyard actually played at a level of 3,442 and Angus Hall at a level of 1,147. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 46% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rich Banyard changes to +38% and Angus Hall changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rich Banyard becomes +13.6% and for Angus Hall becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2019/20' so the adjustment for Rich Banyard is +10.2% and for Angus Hall is -9.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Angus Hall is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rich Banyard: 81%, Angus Hall: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rich Banyard: 55%, Angus Hall: 60%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Angus Hall: 1,595, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Rich Banyard: 2,593, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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